Anatomy of a Vlad Jr blunder
This time we put the "act" in action
Vladimir Guerrero Jr is, at long last, looking more like himself at the plate. By all reports and appearances, he’s working his way back into the shape that invited so much promise when Spring Training began in Dunedin so many years ago.
The recent downtick (from some very lofty heights) might constituent a slump. Which is natural enough (unless you were hatched from a spore and fall out of bed with a .300/.400.600 line.) and likely not cause for concern.
A well-worn baseball axiom claims “speed doesn’t slump.” It’s logical enough but, if you’ve watched the Blue Jays much lately, you’ll note that another old saw might be applicable too: “you can’t fix stupid.”
The Blue Jays base running foibles make for easy criticism, something you’re unlikely to find much of in this space. I agree with Hyun-Jin Ryu’s perspective offered below. I agree to a fault.
Go make a play. It’s all you can ever really ask of a competitor. Make a play, do what you think you can do to help win the game. I understand that some fans hate “mental errors” or outs that could avoided by not taking risks, but the bloodlust/demand for punishment doesn’t track for me. Let the kids play, as a recent marketing slogan implored.
Into that zeal for the dramatic and streak of daredevilry must enter a degree of self-awareness, which is where our guy Vlad Jr comes in. So far in his young career, Guerrero has been a shambolic base runner. By Fangraphs, his baserunning has been 7.5 runs below average in one full season’s allotment of games, the second worst number in the game since the start of 2019.
That said, Guerrero seems to have learned a lesson or two in 2020. Nobody in baseball has hit more long singles than Vlad Jr, with four base hits that traveled more than 320 feet. We can likely chalk this newfound discretion up to a few things:
Vlad Jr hits the ball harder than almost everyone else, meaning his liners thunder off the wall and are headed back to the infield in uncommonly short order
He’s learning lessons about risk and reward
He wasn’t confident in his speed after the unplanned three month layoff to start the season
All these factors came together to create a perfect storm on Thursday night, a moment in which Vlad Jr’s increased feelings of confidence, a desire to make a play for his offensively stagnant club and a frustrated player on a bad team produced a head-scratching highlight.
With the benefit for hindsight, it’s easy to say “he shouldn’t have gone there.” Another reason it’s easy to say that is, because, well, he shouldn’t have gone there. But with two outs in a one-run game, you see our opponent make a mental mistake and then, as you round third base, you see this:
Maybe it’s okay to take a chance.
Chavis is not in a position to make a play, as this screenshot a few seconds later attests. Flat footed, attention on his teammate as they lament their lot in life after dropping a routine pop fly in shallow right field.
Now, it’s entirely possible that Chavis deked or goaded Vlad Jr into running. And while this is short right field we’re talking about, it is not very far out for an infielder (Dan Shulman eyeballs 125 feet on the broadcast,) even a second baseman, to throw home to nail a runner. Which was the, uh, outcome here.
Is this a learning experience for Vlad Jr? Probably. Is this a situation that a benching will “fix?” Of that I’m less convinced. As stated on a recent episode of Birds All Day, I’m never in favour of beating aggressiveness and the desire to make good things happen out of players. Penalize those “disrepect the game” or don’t give max effort when the situation requires it, not those with (somewhat dillusional) belief in their ability to make a difference.
I think Vlad Jr and his swashbuckling teammates will learn that giving a very bad team free outs, or even just the opportunity to make free outs with a modicum of competence, is not in their best interests. That a team reliant on the home run should maximize the number of runners those home runs cash in rather than expecting four solo bombs will get the job done every night.
In short: make a play but use your head. Know thyself but also know thine opponent - big leaguers who can throw strikes from 125 feet no matter how sleepy they appear to be around the switch. Extra bases come and go but televised base running blunders are forever.