Are we still lucky to be here?

Tears on my Gore-Tex

I saw video recently that featured Seth Rogen explaining the difference between “plot” and “story.” It’s a few years old but it focuses on how the plot of Superbad follows the comedic misadventures of three unfuckable nerds and the lengths they’re willing to go in the pursuit of sexual conquest.

While they ultimately fail at the “doing sex” part of their mission, the movie succeeds by revealing the pursuit itself to be unimportant. It’s a movie about growth, friendship and so much more. The real pussy hunt was the relationships forged along the way.

Rogen describes “luring them in with the plot but then giving them story.” I can’t think of a better way to describe the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays.

These things are undeniably true:

• the Blue Jays are 10 games over .500

• They have the 8th best record in baseball, playing in the toughest division

• Theirs is the 7th best offense by wRC+ and the best defense by Defensive Runs Saved

• They are projected to have the 5th best record during the remaining ~60 games

• By ZiPS, they have the 4th or 5th best odds to win the World Series

That is the plot of the Jays season to date. They are undoubtably one of the best built teams in baseball. The lineup is deep and more balanced than in previous seasons. The bullpen is improved, the defense exemplary. The rotation features four starters with ERAs below 4.00.

The talent, the obvious strength of the team, the record and the playoff odds are the plot. That this season already feels like a failure is the story.

As I observe the Blue Jays — from a distance for the first time in 15 years — it feels like they have no chance of winning the World Series this year. None. Zero. They are Not It.

The situational futility is certainly to blame, as is the dire record against teams in their division/other teams in the AL Wild Card hunt. Blame the Rays hot start or the Orioles hot hot heat. Blame Alek Manoah’s instantaneous regression-cum-decline or Kevin Gausman’s bullshit luck. Blame Alejandro Kirk’s one good skill deserting him. Or, to be more succinct, just blame Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays on Instagram: “The Home Run King 🏆 #PLAKATA 💥”

July 11, 2023

As Stoeten so accurately points out, the 2023 Blue Jays are Vlad and he is them. Vlad’s fame, his stature within the game and obvious talent is the plot. That he has hit fewer home runs than Issac Paredes and has produced lower wRC+ than Justin Turner is the story.

It’s not all Vlad Jr but his shortcomings, such as they are, provide an adequate receptacle for all the frustrations with how these Blue Jays have performed to date. He’s not bad but he should be better. It’s clear that he can do it and hell, it’s not like he hasn’t done it before. But he’s not doing it now and it doesn’t feel like he ever really will.

Of course, he could yet go Main Character mode, rediscover the form of 2021 with the team on his back and be the hero forever. A lovely idea. Instead I look at him and see the Face of The Franchise, which says so much (not all of it good.)

They don’t award bonus cool guy points for being first to say “it’s over” about one of the 29 teams that fails to win the World Series in a given year. And this team could yet surprise! They could go on a run, the underperformers could get hot and then we’ll all watch the wins start to roll in. Hell, they could fuck around and actually win the World Series! There exists abundant data to debunk my doomsaying, the most unambiguous statistic reading “games remaining: 62.”

Maybe some as-yet-unseen plot twists will unlock a more profound version of this story. But it feels like a fairy tale when confronted with the maddening excellence-flavoured mediocrity that has been the first 100 games of the season. Too much plot, not enough story. Better hurry, there’s time but never as much as you think.