Got a wishbone drying on the windowsill in my kitchen
When will Vlad Jr turn it around? Sooner than it seems
After this space tried to look a little deeper into Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent struggles, the Blue Jays first baseman responded with a glimmer of positivity. While he went 0-4, he didn’t strikeout once, he boasted the highest exit velocity of the game (a 110mph groundout) and drew a walk in the ninth inning. Good things, right?!?
Big league advanced scouting being what it is, the Angels stayed consistent with their approach against Vlad Jr, peppering him with fastballs inside and doing their best to keep breaking balls away.
One mid-game encounter was emblematic of the difference between “right now Vlad” and “regular, world destroying Vlad.” Lefty Sam Selman faced Guerrero in the fifth inning with the bases loaded and pitched to his own strengths rather than focusing on what’s troubling the very large man in the batter’s box in that moment. He tried to keep fastballs away and get onto the batter’s back foot with his slider. He left one tantalizing sliders over the plate in a key moment of the encounter but the scuffling Jays’ slugger couldn’t get to it, popping it straight up behind the plate.
The late game plate appearance against sinker/slider righty Aaron Slegers had a better outcome but it showed just how out of sorts Guerrero is at the moment. He drew a walk in the ninth inning but didn’t look particularly comfortable, swinging through the only two pitches to threaten the strike zone before Slegers walked him. But we take the positives when they come, right?
As you might imagine, a guy going from “triple crown contender” to “51 wRC+ in August” attracts attention. The Blue Jays moved Guerrero down in the order, from the optimized second spot to his more customary three hole. And excellent studio analyst Joe Siddall of Sportsnet broke down some of the mechanical things that might be plaguing Guerrero at the moment, noting that his timing appears disrupted with mental or physical fatigue as a likely source.
The minute differences that manifest themselves in big time struggles are the key takeaway for me. There was an old SABR 2.0 saw about hot streaks being imaginary and players performing to their true talent in the long run. While I don’t disagree that players are who they are until they make significant changes, there’s no way to dismiss the idea of variance in something with as many moving parts and variables as a big league baseball swing.
More specifically, the act of creating a baseball swing in the service of hitting big league pitching presents countless opportunities for things to go awry. And I think Siddall nails that part of his breakdown. Essentially: shit happens. Even to the best!
Shi Davidi wrote a terrific feature on Vlad Jr this week, talking with teammates and coaches about the changes that brought Guerrero to where he is today1, the very same things that are sure to usher him back to his new normal as he sorts himself out.
As Guillermo Martinez tells Davidi:
He’s a different person from ’19 to ’21 in terms of the preparation, understanding who’s pitching, watching video, having conversations with the coaches and just having fun.
If you’ve followed Guerrero’s path through the first 2+ years of his career, you have to believe. A few timing tweaks and an increased emphasis on using the whole field are the most likely ways Vlad Jr will get himself right.
Tonight (Thursday), he faces his main rival for the AL MVP2 as two-way phenom and author of the greatest season in baseball history Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for the Angels. If ever there was a time to deploy the all fields approach, it’s tonight.
If you’re Vladimir Guerrero Jr, let the notoriously wild (especially early in the game) Ohtani come to you. Stay back and look for his cutter/slider early in the count. Use your preternaturally quick hands get to the upper 90s fastball and bang it off the high right field wall. Avoid the splitter at all costs3, waiting until two strikes to leverage your plate coverage to make solid contact and drive pitches where they’re thrown.
Easier said than done, especially when you’re struggling at the plate. But Guerrero is so talented and so determined to be great that I can’t think of another hitter better positioned to turn this around on a dime. It’s just a matter of time.
still leading position players in Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), still leading baseball in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS, still sporting a Statcast page littered with 99th percentile rankings…
lol no
Just like Ohtani has done since the sticky stuff crackdown 😬😅