Leading from the front
How the best can get even better
Let’s play a game. It’s one of my favourite games to play. which is the Player A/Player B game. Take a look at the chart below and imagine to yourself what you’re looking at.
Hint: it’s a microsplit! Who do you think Player A is and who is Player B? And what is the situation shown below?
First answer: this is the production to date of two Blue Jays hitters when behind in the count.
Player A is Bo Bichette
Player B is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It is no great indictment of Vlad Jr’s amazing season to see him struggle, in relative terms, when behind in the count. Almost all hitters struggle once they get behind, that’s the whole reason pitchers work so hard to get ahead!
And for greater context, Baseball-Reference provides an indexed value for the splits on their site - they call it sOPS+. With 100 as league average in a given situation, it shows how a given hitter performs relative to league-wide performance. And in this split, Vlad Jr is still an above-average performer with 135 sOPS+ when behind in the count. Bichette is among the league’s best when behind in the count, sporting a 170 sOPS+.1
For even greater context, it’s worthwhile to note that Guerrero rarely falls behind in the count. He’s almost always ahead, it’s sort of his thing2 (other than smashing the first pitch, he does that well, too.3)
But it’s something that warrants monitoring. During a recent game, one of the broadcast team mentioned something about Vlad Jr not “giving away at bats,” a baseball aphorism that is easily applied to someone with an OPS north of 1.100. But I don’t think it’s necessarily true, personally.
One plate appearance against the Rays last weekend sticks out in my mind. Facing the Rays hair farming velo genius Tyler Glasnow, Vlad Jr went up with a plan. Glasnow had a different plan and the whole thing was over pretty quickly.
Having already homered and singled off the Rays’ ace—both of which came of the hulking right-hander’s slider—Guerrero came to the plate for his third plate appearance of the day looking for a fastball. I don’t know that definitely but it certainly looked that way when Glasnow a slider in the other batter’s box and Guerrero, uncharacteristically, swung through it.
The next pitch was another slider down and away that, this time, Vlad took for ball one. Glasnow then throws ANOTHER slider, this time one thrown right down the middle that Guerrero just misses 1-2.
Behind in the count, Glasnow opts for the curve ball and Vlad Jr can’t hold back his swing. The curve is a nasty offering with elite spin4 that is a good choice in that spot. But, for me, this was an at bat that felt just a little bit off.
Geared up for a fastball off a guy he and his teammates were seeing well, after he missed badly at the first pitch in the dirt it almost felt like encounter was all but over at that point. Was this at bat “given away,” as suggested above? Probably not. But it wasn’t the best PA of the MVP candidate’s glittering season to date, that’s for sure.
What does this isolated at bat against one of the best pitchers in the American League have to do with Vlad struggling, in relative terms, when behind the count? I think it’s a key area for growth - one of the few left for Vlad Jr to pursue.
Far from a criticism, as Guerrero has shown an amazing capacity for improvisation and game planning at the plate this season. Firstly, he has been so great at getting ahead in the count. Secondly, a huge part of his recent run of success comes back to his ability to stay back on breaking balls, smashing them the other way or yanking them to left when the situation permits.
His home run against Corey Kluber this week was a terrific example of the later. He was able to sit back and crush a (feeble/injury-hampered) Kluball out to right-centre field in the Joke Stadium that Ruth Built.
If he tries to pull that pitch, it’s a ground out. But a slurvy slider left up like one is good eating for any hitter ready for it.
Vlad Jr has plenty of success with two strikes this year, most of which comes with the count full thanks to his elite ability to take close pitches. But keep an eye on how he handles 0-25 and 1-2 counts for the rest of the year. I think it’s an area he can continue to improve, taking his all fields approach and impeccable bat-to-ball skills to the next level as he looks to become an even better version of the best hitter around.
The Blue Jays regulars, as a group, seem to thrive when behind. Only Cavan Biggio is below average in these counts among Jays with 40 plate appearances with the count in the pitcher’s favour.
Not as often as Marcus Semien, who ranks sixth in baseball in plate appearances when ahead in the count
Another story for another day…
🤔
0-2 in particular seems like a tough spot for him. His sOPS+ in this count is just 25! Only three hits all season long!