It started as many weeks have this winter: photos and Instagram videos featuring Vlad Guerrero Jr looking lean and strong, ready to take on the world. There isn’t a lot of untrodden ground in this area. He’s (still) working hard and the results are (still) promising!
But the conversation since shifted. With the Blue Jays boldly signing Kirby Yates, Marcus Semien and George Springer (but not Michael Brantley) then trading for Steven Matz, they have effectively announced that play time is over. Player development time is done. Now it is time to play. To produce. To win.
Not unlike when this space discussed the difference between process-driven regular season player development and the get-shit-done ethos of the playoffs, we’re now asking different questions of Vlad Jr. Is he ready now? Where does he help this new-look team most? Can he play third base well enough to make further lineup machinations easier? What does this mean for the expectations of his performance? Does he assume a middle-of-the-order position straight away or does he become a lesser light?
Every upgrade the Blue Jays make shifts the meaning of these questions. Continuing to pile up the talent and sort thing out as you go. Having too many good players is a decent problem, though it’s never a problem for too long. Injuries, underperformance and/or optimized deployment work their way into the decision matrix with ease. What’s left, ideally, is a winning team competing for the World Series.
“Let’s get the team built and have it be more complete before we start building lineups” Ross Atkins
In a different world, with a different player, all this would be too much to ask a still 21-year old with a grand total of 757 big league plate appearances to his name. A player younger than seven of the top 10 prospects on Keith Law’s latest list. But this isn’t a different player. This could be the Blue Jays most important player for 2021.
Luckily for everyone, he doesn’t have to be the most important player. Or the best player. But there’s enough belief that he and his youthful cohort can be good-to-great players, such that surrounding them with other good (and expensive) players seems like a winning combination. And should Vlad Jr’s bat blossom as it should, and he ends up (as I suspect) their best hitter, well that’s very good for business indeed.
The 2020 Blue Jays happened to good enough to make the playoffs. The 2021 Blue Jays should expect it. They clearly expect Vlad Jr and Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson and many others to be good, or else they wouldn’t have made franchise-record investments in the players to surround them. So let’s see it. Let’s not lose sight of the process but 2021 is going to be all results, all the time.
And that goes for 2022 and beyond, too. Given the way the front office structured the George Springer deal, they anticipate big arbitration payouts for their young core in the not-too-distant future. Like having too many good players, that’s a not a problem to have. Too many players producing at such a level to warrant steep raises? Sign me up for fake problems like those any day.