The Burden of Charismatic Megafauna
"Sex sells" but make it baseball...
The image you see below is of a five-lined skink. This small lizard is found in the wild across Ontario but the “Carolinian” population is endangered, meaning it faces “imminent extinction or extirpation.” In 2009, this species was listed as “at risk” in Ontario and not much has changed since. Its habitat is still under threat from urban sprawl and assorted aesthetic pursuits.
Say what you want about the cool blue of the five-lined skink’s tail, it is not a photogenic creature that you’ll see on glossy handouts or fundraising emails from conservation groups. Families do not drive for hours, pack lunches and slap down hundreds of dollars, to look at skinks when they visit the zoo. It is not charismatic megafauna.
Tigers and polar bears send people into their wallets to help conservation efforts. Elephants move the needle in a way salmon subspecies never could. The big, the easily identifiable, the familiar, the exotic and the beautiful occupy lots of space and suck the oxygen from most rooms.
Which is to say: Vladimir Guerrero Jr is everything Cavan Biggio is not. Biggio is a divisive figure among Blue Jays fans for everything that he is and also everything he is not. The antithesis of Guerrero, whose breakout is always just around the corner.
Biggio is a very patient hitter with nearly 5 WAR of production across the span of one full season’s worth of games. He plays a variety of positions and brings an enviable work ethic and dedication to study to the ballpark every day. He ranked as the fifth best second baseman in the game according the MLB Network’s positional rankings.
Alternately, he is player without a real position or much pop in his bat. His Statcast numbers portend doom as a player with a lot of empty OBP propping up his numbers. He’s old for his experience level and there’s some thought (mine) that his numbers have come in fits and starts against inferior competition (this part is largely untrue.)
So what does all this mean? Are we (me) discounting results too much and favouring the mystique, prospect pedigree and baseball sex appeal of Vlad Guerrero Jr when Cavan Biggio is just as, if not more so, key to Blue Jays success moving forward?
In a word, no. But also…probably?
Results do matter and that’s why there are smart people creating projections, weighting not just the on-field production but other factors like minor league track record and age. To wit, Vlad Jr’s projections outpace Biggio’s by most freely available numbers. That said, ZiPS projects Biggio to be a more productive player in 2021, as does Baseball Reference’s in-house brew. Compare and contrast below.
Cavan Biggio
Vladimir Guerrero Jr
Both player project as above-average regulars, just with differently shaped production: Vlad Jr is a net negative defensively while Biggio’s defensive versatility, patience and base running make him a valued contributor, specifically on a good team with title aspirations.
The variety in offensive projections is really striking to me, Vlad Jr’s projections run the gamut, with BR’s system having such faith in Biggio’s plate discipline as to project him to be a more productive hitter than Guerrero.
Projection systems understandably rub some folks the wrong way. The future of these systems feels tied closely to the more granular in-game data related to the ability to hit the round ball with the round bat, regularly and squarely. Baseball analysts are still calculating how to convert these component metrics into projections moving forward but, for my money, it takes a lot of chutzpah to think that this player
will be a better, or more productive, hitter than this player - next year or ever.
It isn’t to suggest Cavan Biggio is a bad or useless player, far from it. But it’s the differences in age and the style in which they produced at the big league effort that suggest one player getting close to the maximum from their abilities and another player just tapping into the vast pools of their potential.
Luckily for Blue Jays fans, they don’t have to choose one over the other: they both play for the same team! And no matter where each slots into Charlie Montoyo’s batting order, if the more senior player manages to get on base in 2021 as he has so far in his big league career, the Junior seems like a good bet to drive him in a bunch (thanks in no small part to Biggio’s astute base running!)
Different players, different paths and different expectations. It’s easy to dismiss the contributions of one and gloss over the shortcomings of another for all the same reasons sockeye salmon don’t drive donation dollars as much as the killer whales, even though those whales need those very salmon to live. We’re simple creatures, sometimes we just want to see something that leaves our mouths wide with wonder.
The lizard has a better shot at hitting high velo than Cavan ...