Vladimir Guerrero Jr is a problem. If you are an opposing pitcher, trying to get Vlad Jr out now is an agonizing proposition. You might get him sometimes but he is officially A Problem.
If you make a mistake over the plate, he will crush it. If you throw a cement mixer of slider that just sort of sits in the heart of the zone, you will soon be turning back to the umpire to ask for a new ball.
He is still a right handed batter and if you, as a right handed pitcher, throw a good slider down and away, he will swing through it. Angels starter Griffin Canning got him to miss on the pitch before the home run, and struck him out looking in his next plate appearance with a backup slider that fooled the Jaysâ slugger.
Later, with the game only the line in extras, Guerrero struck out against closer Raisel Iglesias (who struck out the side) after a steady diet of breaking balls down and away. but Vlad Jrâs third at bat of the night shows us the kind of hitter he is now (very good.)
Aaron Slegers is very big and throws a very tough-on-righties frisbee slider. As you can see from the at bat chart below, Slegers had a very specific plan against Vlad Jr and did not deviate from that plan. After setting the table with sinkers that started in and broke to the pitcherâs arm side, it was nothing but sliders down and away.
Vlad Jr took first, third and fourth pitches of this encounter as balls, getting himself into good hitterâs count1. As you can see above, pitch 5 - the 3-1 offering - was almost perfectly located slider in a traditionally fastball count. Guerrero swung over it for strike two. Full count!
The sixth and final pitch was another slider just off the plate. Too close to take in that count and that situation. Unlike the previous pitch, this payoff pitch was up, nearly belt high, and while Vlad Jr didnât eject it from the premises, he lined it sharply to the right side of the infield, eluding Angelsâ second baseman David Fletcher for an RBI single.
It was a very impressive piece of hitting because it was timely and heady while still retaining the core Vladness: it was stroked at a cool 105 mph. As noted previously, hitting the ball hard pays immediate dividends. Fletcher makes a play easily if Guerrero doesnât get the barrel to it as only he and few others can.
He is a A Problem. Currently Vlad Jr has above-average statcast numbers in every offensive category but sprint speed (of course) and whiff rate - which, given his propensity for getting into great hittersâ counts2, isnât a problem in and of itself. Heâs drawn more walks than anyone on the team while striking out less than any other regular. He looks good and teams want nothing to do with him if they can avoid it.
To betray my late-aughts baseball analytics heritage, I believe in hot streaks. Given all the moving parts and different variables in a baseball playerâs swing, I firmly believe that players can get locked in, their mental work and mindset and the physical approach can align and theyâre able to perform at or close to their peak production for moments or chunks in time.
Are we seeing that right now with Vlad Jr? Perhaps, and weâve seen it before. But all of the pieces that were so close to alignment over the last two years are now working in unison. This is what Blue Jays fans were promised and what the Blue Jays brain trust expected. This is it: letâs watch and see how long the ride lasts. It could be a few weeks or it could be a few years. The sky is the limit but itâs just within reach.
Another point for âVlad is a problemâ - he was in the driverâs seat of every one of his at bats save the strikeout against Iglesias, and even that AB ran to a full count.
See above