Sometimes, when at bats start and the TV graphics displays an OPS that starts with a “1.”, if can be hard to tell when a player is slumping. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr is in a slump. He has just two extra base hits in the month of May, a pair of doubles.
He’s taking his walks almost as frequently as in April and his strikeout rate is no higher than last month, he just isn’t getting hits. No hits! It doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
So if he’s still walking and still putting the ball in play, has his vaunted exit velocity abandoned him? Has Vlad Jr stopped hitting the ball with authority? Turns out…no!
He’s walloping the ball at nearly the identical rate in May as he did in April. Then what, we must ask. What is the difference with Vlad Jr right now? Could it be…the thing we fear most?
As a great man once said:
There’s obviously more to it than just “Vlad Jr forgot how to hit the ball in the air and lo, he’s bad now.” Baseball swings and hitting at the big league level is a complicated and ever-changing thing. Variance happens - but it usually has help.
Were I to speculate, I’d say that his ground ball rate is increasing as a result of him getting a little more pull-happy and rolling over on more breaking balls thrown on the outside part of the plate. That doesn’t mean that’s what’s happening, but that’s my guess.
If (big if) that’s Guerrero’s issue, how does he correct it? What is the combination of approach, pitcher’s plan of attack and just plain dumb luck figures into his current struggles? It’s hard to say, but with good hitters like Vlad there are always silver linings to find and glimmers of hope to point towards.
During Sunday’s game, Guerrero dumped a soft single into shallow right field off Zack Greinke, serving the first pitch he saw the other way. Learning from his previous at bat against the wily Astros’ right hander, Vlad Jr didn’t waste any time inside-outing the only fastball he figured he would see. It was a good example of having a plan and seeing it through with success.
Was it an opposite field screamer into the seats? Is this the only way back to mashing for Guerrero? Maybe not, but a return to the whole field approach could, if nothing else, discourage him from rolling-over on pitches thrown away, a bit of a habit he developed in recent weeks.
Opposite field bloops don’t goose up the exit velocity numbers but if the cascading effects of “not flying open” or whichever amateur hitting coach truism you prefer return Vlad Jr to hitting missiles to the power alleys and over nearby fences, I’m all for it.
There’s no reason to worry but that doesn’t mean this situation doesn’t bear monitoring. Tracking Vlad Jr’s ground ball creep doesn’t make you a pessimist, it makes you a discerning viewer. As the Blue Jays head into some National League clubs, here’s hoping he returns to his “hit it high and watch it fly” mode and away from his “slam the bat AND the ball into the ground” mode because, honestly, the first one is a lot more fun to watch.