How many times, in your mind, has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. come up with The Big Hit for the Blue Jays in 2021? Have their been moments during this rollercoaster of a season that you can remember saying to yourself: “Vladdy really saved them tonight!”
When it comes to heroic exploits, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is likely the guy who came to mind first, given his incredible September run. George Springer’s big bomb against Boston is likely another key moment that will live long in the memory of Blue Jays fans1.
And yet, if we look at a measure like Championship Win Probability Added, Vlad Jr leads the way. cWPA is a relatively new metric compiled by Baseball Reference. As its name implies, it is a superpowered version of Win Probability Added, examining the significance of every play by how it changes the state of a game and then, in turn, how much that win pushes the team towards a championship in the context of the whole season.
For reference, Joe Carter’s walkoff home run increased the 1993 Blue Jays cWPA by 30%. José Bautista’s ALDS bat flip home run2 was worth 8.64%. A more recent, regular season example would be Springer’s home run against Boston (0.74% cWPA) or Randal Grichuk’s walkoff home run against the Orioles last August3 (0.77%.)
As noted above, Vlad Jr leads the 2021 Blue Jays in cWPA. He leads the hitters by a lot. Not because of any one particular big hit but because he just gets a lot of hits. He gets on base so much that, even if he isn’t the one dealing the death blow, so many rallies start or continue because of Vladdy.
Take Tuesday night’s game against the Rays as an example. Gurriel Jr. hit a home run to give the Blue Jays the lead in the fifth inning, Bo Bichette was credited with the game winning RBI and Teoscar Hernández tacked on a crucial run and Alek Manoah pitched well enough to win, going six innings and allowing just two runs. But who lead the team in WPA? Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vlad Jr’s flared single in the sixth inning was the single most significant play of the night, as it moved Marcus Semien to third base with Guerrero going to second on the throw. That hit in that moment put the Blue Jays in an ideal spot to score - with runners on second and third with nobody, the offensive club can push across a run any number of ways. The Jays didn’t manage any more hits that inning but did score the crucial go-ahead run on a sac fly.
Not only does this help us reconsider why RBIs are dumb and bad, it helps re-contextualize just how good Vlad Jr continues to be. He is the straw that stirs the drink but the drink in this case is the second best offense in baseball. Something I’ve written here before and said a million times on the podcast or on radio is that all roads in the Blue Jays lineup lead to Vlad Jr. It doesn’t matter where you hit him or how you build your batting order so long as you base your offensive approach — and entire club, for that matter — around the idea of Vlad Jr is central to the whole thing.
It can’t do it all himself. He’s not going to hit a home run every time but, by that same token, he can’t create opportunities for himself beyond what he does in the batter’s box. He can only do his job: get on base, hit home runs and turn in good at bats.
A look at Vlad’s top five cWPA events of the year is very interesting.
The big home run (in May!) against the Rays is at the top of the list but the single from last night is fourth! His fourth biggest hit of the year, which is kind of crazy. But it goes back to the core idea presented here: they all count. Runs Batted In is a team stat because non-home runs require somebody else to get on base and, in this case, another person to move that guy into position for the run to score on a lazy fly ball.
This is another way to reconsider the Most Valuable Player debate. While Guerrero trails Semien and sits tied Robbie Ray by Wins Above Replacement, he leads in cWPA, just ahead of Jordan Romano (the high leverage king) and Ray. Does that make him the most valuable player on the Blue Jays, when we consider the big picture? I think it does.
Does it make him the most valuable player in the American League? That’s a debate for another day…
Because it was awesome
There’s never a bad time to watch this clip so I embedded it, as a treat
Something that definitely happened and I remember well?!?