Finding love in doubt
Say it again, I'll end this right now
Ever the enigma, Alejandro Kirk’s 2023 season is off to an unusual start. One of the most conspicuous players in the big leagues is conspicuous by his absence at Blue Jays’ Spring Training camp in Dunedin.
The opening salvo of L’Affair Alejandro was put to rest before the calendar turned to March, as Kirk is officially out of the World Baseball Classic with his baby arriving soon after the announcement.
As lukewarm late February soup of the day, Kirk’s absence was thin gruel. Whenever he arrives in Dunedin, so begins a fascinating season — one crucial to any success the 2023 Blue Jays might hope to achieve.
When I think about Kirk, two things come to mind. He is really, really good at two aspects of the game: he squares up the baseball and he frames the low strike. A gross oversimplification? Perhaps! But, then again, maybe it isn’t…
Not only is it a gross oversimplification, it also probably doesn’t matter!
The first of those two key skills outlined above is so integral to success at the big league level that just about every other thing a baseball player does can be considered secondary.
When we add Kirk’s stunning command of the strike zone, which allowed him to rank as one of only eight players to walk more than he struck out in 2022, you have a very good batter, one welcome in any lineup across baseball but the 2023 Blue Jays order in particular.
Secondly: Kirk is a strong all-around defensive catcher. His framing at the bottom of the strike zone is elite but all his skills rate well according to advanced metrics like those found at Baseball Prospectus. Framing might have diminishing returns in coming years, the Blue Jays are attempting to win the World Series in 2023, not the Marginal Surplus Value Olympics of 2025, so let’s take the Ws where they come.
On the other side of the ledger, Kirk’s base running stands in stark contrast to his elite skills. On the base paths Kirk is truly terrible. He’s among the worst in baseball at the tender age of 24 and he’s likely only going to get worse. He doesn’t run into outs but he rarely takes the extra base while also hitting into more than his share of double plays. That’s a bad combination that feels worse because of the, uh, optics of the young catcher rumbling around the base paths.
That he puts the ball in play so often further complicates this issue, as does his strong walk rate. Kirk is forced to become a baserunner very often, perhaps too often. Given the the club’s renewed emphasis on base aggression and the 💫 exciting✨ new dimensions of the Rogers Centre, bad or ineffective base running will only stand out more.
Kirk isn’t a serious home run threat which only exacerbates the shortcomings with his legs. It puts a lot of pressure on his batted ball variance, which is no way to live. Home runs are the most direct path to scoring runs and it’s a worthwhile debate to consider just how many hits and walks you’d trade off for a few extra round trippers, if you had the choice.
These shortcomings are real. The questions about how this aspect of his skillset will drag down his overall value as a ball player are legitimate, especially when forecasting his age 27-30 seasons. But they are more future concerns rather than obstacles in the here and now.
The Blue Jays front office have taken an aggressive “don’t waste your bullets” approach with Kirk from day one. Let him hit until he can’t, catch until he can’t and help the team until he can’t. Who cares about the mythical Cather Of The Future? The 4 WAR catcher of right fucking now, one who partners lovely with your other every day quality catcher is staring you in the face. Win today’s game, let somebody else worry about paying the bills in 2028.
For me, it’s an example of an “analyst” (me1, in this case) searching —desperately — for a flaw to rationalize my own lack of ease with Kirk’s unconventional skillset, and why I was mentally including Kirk in every half-baked trade idea over the last 10 months. It is me missing the forest for the trees.
Alejandro Kirk is a very good hitter and good baseball player on balance. He makes the 2023 Blue Jays much better than Gabriel Moreno might’ve, which is why the Blue Jays are patiently waiting for Kirk to arrive to camp while the Arizona Diamondbacks are patiently waiting to learn what kind of big leaguer Moreno might become.
The answer to what Kirk will mean to the 2023 Blue Jays won’t be found in a Fangraphs leaderboard and no attempt to glean special meaning from statcast hieroglyphics will unveil his future. A focus on his present feels better and is an example of growth for us all.2 Dreaming on how a big league player can help your chosen team win a World Series is a lot more fun than playing pump-and-dump schemes with arb-eligible players to keep the wage bill down.
Perhaps the present will be as Mike Wilner suggested when I was a guest on his podcast: less Kirk means more for the Blue Jays. Keep him fresher, use him in an even more optimized way and look for opportunities to get the most out of his abundant skills whenever you can.
How this round peg fits into one of baseball’s squarest holes3 is one of the storylines to watch in 2023. Appreciating what he does rather than pointing out what he doesn't gets my full attention this season. I'm excited to see how he takes this latest opportunity to prove me wrong again.
lol
For me. Audience of one, remember
Almost made it
I've missed your silky prose
Congratulations to Alejandro on the addition of their first "wriggly loaf of bread".