Two months into sparkling start to his 2021 season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr leads baseball in several offensive categories. He’s first in Wins Above Replacement, first in wRC+, first in OPS, first in home runs, first in times reached base…the list goes on.
If you keep scrolling down this imaginary list I just made up, you’ll find Vlad Jr also leads baseball in another, highly specific category: first pitch hits. 19 times this year, the Blue Jays’ first baseman picked up a hit on the first pitch he saw. He has three home runs among those 19 hits, good for fourth in the league.
Swinging at the first pitch is, a rule, a good idea. Obviously it should be noted that swinging at any pitch is not a good idea but going up, ready to hit, is in fact good for business. Vlad Jr is among the best in the game at jumping on the first pitch he sees, surpassed this year by only Bo Bichette and a handful of others (Nick Castellanos, the second best qualified hitter by wRC+ among them.)
First pitch aggression is a good idea for a hitter like Vlad Jr in particular because he’s shown himself to be so absurdly patient this year. He rarely expands the zone but he’s happy to hunt for a good pitch to hit, lest any pitcher think they can steal a quick strike.
The psychology of swinging at the first pitch is interesting, especially for Vlad Jr. As the last dispatch broke down, he’s nowhere near as productive once he falls behind in the count. But after he gets ahead 1-0, he becomes John Wick, Toronto Maple Leafs with a 3-1 series lead dangerous.
It’s quite the balancing act for pitchers to manage. Too much plate and Vlad Jr will mash it! Miss your spot off the plate, he watches it go by and now you’re in big trouble.
The way pitchers start Vlad — not to mention how he proceeds with the first pitch — bares monitoring for the rest of the season. He’s seen a lot of fastballs to start plate appearances this year, but might that continue? It was telling to watching Cleveland kitchen sink tosser Adam Civale and Guerrero go at it on the weekend.
Vlad Jr swung at the first pitch twice against Civale, who throws at least six pitches and isn’t afraid to throw any of them to start an encounter. In the top of the first inning of Sunday’s first game, Civale started Guerrero with a slider that only a decent running catch by Josh Naylor keep from being a run-scoring double.
Next time up, Vlad Jr goes after the first pitch again! And it’s another slider! This time it’s in a bit of a better location and, seemingly having tried to pull it with two runners on and the chance to ice a seven-inning game in front of him, Guerrero grounds into an inning-ending double play. It happens!
I do not envy pitchers trying to get Vlad Jr out. But the impulse to do too much is strong in all players, especially great ones in the midst of breakout seasons. Vlad Jr being aggressive with the first pitch is a great bit of business, as he’s uniquely positioned to do maximum damage when he gets a pitch he can drive.
Watching how carefully pitchers work Guerrero will go a long way towards the kind of summer the Blue Jays get from their first baseman. If Vlad Jr remains selective, he can continue getting into great hitters counts and carrying the Blue Jays offense. If he presses and pitchers exploit his itchy first pitch trigger finger, it could make for rough times for the young slugger. Based on the adjustments we’ve already seen him make this season, I know which outcome I think we’ll see from here on out.