I wanna fly everywhere and put the miles on my credit card

I got the corner lot, the strongest family name

The ideas central to world’s most popular sports are pretty simple. Take this object and put it over there. Each game offers its own novel spin on this straightforward concept: put object in net…but don’t use your hands. Put object in net…but net is up high. Move object over line, use hands or feet, but only sometimes.

Baseball’s rules are arcane. The origins are simple enough but they game evolved over time, usually because some devious bastard conceived an ingenious new way to cheat. It became a pastoral secret handshake with a colourful lexicon all its own, a game full of subtlety and nuance. Baseball’s turn-based nature creates innumerable moments requiring strategy and intricately shared situational awareness passed through generations.

At least it used to be, until eager beancounters put a McKinseyian spin on Earl Weaver’s famous words and turned the entire sport on its head.

At the Major League level today, baseball is about as subtle as a video on the Hub¹: Big swings, big velo, big flies. Hit the ball over the fence or blow your elbow into 10000 pieces trying. And then, when you’ve exhausted all your attempts to hit home runs, do everything in your power to prevent the other team from returning the favour when it’s their turn.

Hit lots, give up few. Seems simple. Does it work like that? Here are the top three teams in baseball for home run differential (home runs hit minus home runs allowed) this season:

1. New York Yankees (1st in AL East, best record in baseball)

2. Baltimore Orioles (2nd in AL East)

3. Philadelphia Phillies (1st in NL East, best record in the National League)

Last year, the World Series champion Texas Rangers² finished fifth by this metric. Atlanta ranked first, they won 104 games. The Dodgers ranked third, they won 100. How did Tampa Bay win 99 games in the AL East while running a minuscule payroll? Not by bunts and hit and runs, that’s for sure. Their +53 differential ranked second in baseball.

It’s a crude measure³ but it perfectly encapsulates what’s gone wrong with the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays. They don’t hit nearly enough home runs but they give them up in bunches. So far this year, it’s 25 more allowed than hit. Only two teams are worse, one of which might lose 120 games.

Cole Burston/Getty Images.

It’s a bad place to be and an indictment of how the team is a) built and b) developed, especially after the aforementioned Orioles come into town and hit four home runs in what we’re told is a pitcher's park.

Too many Blue Jays’ hitters simply can’t (or haven’t) hit for enough power while the pitchers keep serving them up by the hatful. Even the best defensive team in baseball (which the Blue Jays almost certainly are) cannot prevent runs if the balls do not land in the field of play.

Last season, the Blue Jays allowed 10 more home runs than they hit. In 2022, they were +20 and in 2021? +53 - the third best mark in the league.

It’s not unfair to suggest the front office went too far in one direction, overcorrecting because One Bad Thing Happened Once. Now they’re set up to defend, investing not just in their defense but in a bullpen that’s spent all of 2024 getting shelled.

Is it too late to salvage this season? Probably. Relievers are a volatile bunch as a rule and the Jays’ pen has been so bad you can’t help but assume some positive regression is on its way. But the offense? That’s a significant question mark.

Before the now-completed stretch against some of baseball’s dredges, I suggested on the radio that hitting more home runs than they allowed would be nice to see. And guess what? They failed to do even that. 13 games, 13 home runs for, 13 home runs against.

Could a trade or two rejuvenate the Jays’ offense? Does it feel like this club, the one desperate to get Daniel Vogelbach’s bat in the lineup, is one trade away from an offensive explosion?

For perspective, the 2015 Blue Jays finished the season having hit 59 more home runs than they allowed. At the end of July, when the front office looked at their underlying numbers and saw a team worthy of a trade deadline push, they were 27 homers to the good, a much more stable base upon which to build.

It’s easy to throw this at the feet of Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette but that’s only because it’s mostly their fault. Development isn’t linear and such but the franchise cornerstones haven’t produced at a level consistent with the superstardom that seemed very much in reach when the club bought defense because they felt the talent on hand could hold up their end of the offensive bargain.

Whether or not the current iteration of the Blue Jays should continue in its current form is another question for another day⁴, but the what Blue Jays are doing now isn’t enough. They need more offense and pitchers who can keep the ball in the ballpark. Addressing one of those problems is doable, but both at the same time, in season? That’s a facelift requiring more than a little hyperization, I fear.

1. Trying to keep us all out of trouble and/or the spam filter here

2. Gross

3. The Oakland A’s rank fourth so far this season. They’re 13 games below .500. The 2023 Orioles were middle of the pack during their highly blessed 101 win season.

4. Inshallah I will answer it