Three times during Sunday’s demoralizing, soul-crushing loss to the Detroit Tigers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr came to the plate with the game on the line.
First, he faced reliever José Cisnero came up with two runners on and two out in the seventh inning. The Blue Jays were ahead 1-0 so this represented a chance to tack on some insurance runs, put the game out of reach and secure a series win.
It was the second time Guerrero faced Cisnero with a runner on in a late and close situation. On Friday night, the hard throwing Tigers’ right-hander coaxed a double play ball out of Vlad Jr. Scalded at 107 mph as it was, Guerrero’s hot shot quickly turned into two outs in the eighth inning in the first game of the series.
On Sunday, a similar outcome. Another hard sinker/slider combination at the bottom of the zone, this time producing a lazy fly ball to end the inning.
With an inexplicable, shocking throwing error by Marcus Semien allowing the Tigers to tie the game in the top of the ninth, Guerrero stepped in against another hard throwing reliever — this time closer Gregory Soto— with a chance to win the game. Bo Bichette singled off the big lefty known for his bouts of wildness, giving Vlad Jr the opportunity to be the hero.
A wild pitcher versus a very aggressive early count hitter is an interesting matchup. Soto opted for a first pitch slider thrown to the edge of the zone. Guerrero, who we all know kills the first pitch, swung but could only bounce back up the middle. Soto got a piece but shortstop Zack Short gathered and fired a strike to first base, nailing Guerrero before his headlong dive could reach the bag.
It’s a good idea and well executed by the Tigers battery. A worse pitch is going to get hammered but leveraging the known aggression of the Jays’ hitter and executing a good pitch in a good spot got the job done. Could Guerrero take this pitch? Maybe! Perhaps he opts to try to see a few pitches from a guy known to lose the strike zone before getting himself into a good hitter’s count.
But Guerrero got to where he is by destroying the first pitch often and falling behind a big arm with huge strikeout numbers is not an ideal plan. Ah, well then. Nevertheless!
After a few traded runs and a Tigers mini rally put the team from Detroit up by two in the 11th inning, Vlad Jr came to the play representing the Jays’ last chance. The automatic runner was standing out there as the tying run, ill-gotten gains in the form of a lifeline from the baseball gods.
Another hard throwing right-handed pitcher stood on the hill for Detroit, this time Joe Jiménez. Somehow Jiménez has an even harder time with the strike zone than his teammate Soto, but he still brings it in the upper 90s.
It was an unsubtle approach in this situation, the Tigers again starting Vlad Jr with a slider that he fouled off. It wasn’t an ideally located pitch but it moved enough to miss Guerrero’s barrel.
Three fastballs would follow, the first swung through, the second fouled off and the third stared at for strike three. Game over.
It was a good pitch in this situation, with slider likely in the batter’s head. this fastball was dotted in a tough location. Should Guerrero perhaps move into “protect” mode here, using his plate coverage to try and fight off a pitch throw here? Much easier said that done. He was either fooled or guessing but the result was the same: L.
By win probability added, it was the worst game of both Vlad Jr’s 2021 season and his career to date1.
He still has an OPS that starts with “1.”, one of only four players in club history to carry such a number this far into the season. He is still hitting over .300 while getting on base more than 40% of the time. He’s still second in baseball in home runs. But he’s not right at the moment and, on Sunday anyway, it’s killing his team.
I don’t know what it will take for him to exit this funk. Is he expanding the zone? Is he trying to do too much? Is he tired, only exacerbating those previous two factors? I’m willing to believe anything at this point.
Especially with George Springer on the injured list, Vlad Jr is stands out among Blue Jays hitters in his ability to balance aggression and patience. All season he was able to get himself into great hitters counts and then do damage. During this slump, which coincides with a terrible stretch for the team, it feels like he’s behind more than ever.
It’s no fun to watch and I imagine it’s several orders of magnitude worse to experience firsthand. If I knew the solution to bring this painful stretch to an end…I certainly wouldn’t be here tapping out email newsletters to an audience of hundreds. Realistically, there’s no easy fix. It’s about growth and adjustments and fitness and maturity and good fortune and bad luck and god only knows what else.
A poorly timed and highly visible slump could put a damper on what’s been a historic coming out party of a season. Luckily there’s still time to salvage it, both from a personal and team-wide perspective. A year chock-full of surprises, delights and disappointments retains the capacity for hope. I hope.
A pinch hit appearance in 2020 ranks just ahead of Sunday’s game