Below you will see a very serendipitous photo. A screenshot, actually. A moment from Tuesday night’s Blue Jays game against the Marlins. It was during the fifth inning of the Blue Jays’ defeat of Miami, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr behind in the count 0-1 during his third plate appearance of the night.
Here, take a look.
This image shows Marlins starter Sandy Alcántara, all 6’5 and 99mph fastball of him, studying a pitch chart because he has no clue what to do in an attempt to get Vlad Jr. out. More accurately, Alcántara was unsure how to proceed when, for the first time in three plate appearances, he was forced to throw a second pitch to the league’s leading hitter.
The first time they met on Tuesday night, the big Marlins’ righty threw a 97mph sinker that ended up pretty much right down the middle. It was supposed to start off the plate and then run over the outside corner. It did not and, because he threw a middle-middle sinker to Vlad Jr, the ball ended up shot into the right field corner at a cool 104mph, a first pitch, first inning double.
The next time Vlad Jr came to the plate, it was the third inning. There were two runners on base. Alcántara didn’t want to make the same mistake he made in the first inning, leaving a sinker somewhere over the plate, lest Guerrero drive that errant pitch to cash in a run or two. He decided to throw a slider. It went poorly.
The slider was supposed to be away and presumably down, hoping to coax a roll-over swing that could get him out of the inning with a double play. Or, were Vlad Jr to sit fastball again, he’d swing over the pitch for strike one. Instead, it was a back-up slider that hovered like an alien spacecraft before Vlad Jr sent it back into outer space from whence it came at 110 mph off the bat. Two plate appearances, two pitches, two hits, six total bases, three steaks, one demoralized fish.
Which brings us to the screenshot above, wherein the quite-good Marlins starter goes back to the drawing board in an attempt to retire Vladito. He, of course, failed in this endeavor. Going back a new version of the old plan, Alcántara tried to saw Guerrero off with a first pitch sinker inside. This plan worked, producing a bouncing foul ball. Alcántara goes back to the well, throwing the same pitch in a similar place, only to find Guerrero waiting for him. A hard single to right field was the product of a tight, inside-out swing in which Vlad sat back and rode a tough pitch the other way for an easy single.
It’s that ability to wait that makes Vlad Jr so special, and what he did Tuesday night against the Marlins so worthy of celebration. He was 4-4, of course. He hit the ball hard every time up but he’s completely unafraid to use the whole field, either to drive balls with authority (as in his first PA) or to fight off tough pitches while still producing hard contact and positive outcomes.
Vlad Jr already has 19 opposite field hits, including five home runs, in 2021. He ranks fourth in baseball in terms of production to the opposite field (and fifth to centre lol) because of his disciplined approach and preternatural ability to sit back, evaluate and then use the entire field.
It isn’t the only way to be productive. Consider José Bautista, and his overwhelming 2011 season. He only posted 23 opposite field hits all season while on his way to a .302/.447/.608. Just three of his 43 home runs were to the opposite field. The game has changed and an approach like Vlad Jr’s is reflective of not just the extra ⛽ in the game these days but the increase in pitches that spin, as well. So far in 2021, 50.8% of pitches have been fastballs. In 2011, it was 57.8%, to say nothing of the influx of ball doctoring done by pitchers to give their offerings a little extra oomph in the spin rate department.
The day this newsletter “reported” on Vlad Jr’s ability to feast on the first pitch, he feasted on the first pitch over and again. That says a lot more about him than it does about this silly little email blog. He can and will do damage whenever he gets the chance. He is ready to swing and ready to mash no matter when you make your mistakes. Even if you don’t make a mistake, per se, he can and will punish you. It’s part of being elite, the marriage of impeccable eye, fast hands and insane power.
We’re watching a 22-year old who has already reached close to the peak of his powers. Because, realistically, where could he go from here?