Vladimir Guerrero Jr., league leader

Entering a state of love and trust

In a perfect world, two years¹ into Vlad Guerrero Jr’s career, his name would top baseball leaderboards in categories reflective of a prodigious slugger. Home runs maybe, wOBA and its ilk surely, maybe batting average if you felt saucy, RBI if your belief in the Jays other Big Sons is especially strong…you get the idea.

Alas, we do not live in a perfect world. We instead occupy a timeline with professional sports played against the backdrop of an ongoing worldwide pandemic, one with no end in sight. Which is almost as good.

That said, Vlad Jr DOES lead the league in one offensive category since he made his debut, one of the most prestigious, predictive and plenary procurements in professional baseball: long singles.

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Going back to the start of the 2019 season, no batter in baseball has managed more singles that flew at least 315 feet than the former number one prospect in baseball. It’s a heady list, edging out such luminaries as Brian McCann, Rafeal Devers (!), Mike Moustakas, Yasiel Puig (!!) and, of course, Justin Smoak (!!!).

Late in the 2020 season, Vlad Jr’s long singling ways provided the backdrop for a snapshot of the young infielder’s wayward baserunning. At that time, this space noted that:

1. Vlad Jr hits the ball harder than almost everyone else, meaning his liners thunder off the wall and are headed back to the infield in uncommonly short order

2. He’s learning lessons about risk and reward

3. He wasn’t confident in his speed after the unplanned three month layoff to start the season

4. Kevin fucking Kiermaier

The top note is always going to be true and, while it’s not something that stands to hold him back per se, it will be a factor for a below-average runner grabbing the extra base here and there.

The second piece might be a little bit true, as two of his 10 singles featured him getting gunned down greedily trying to stretch doubles into doubles. Throw out by Brett Gardner and later thrown out by Austin Hays, both by…considerable margins.

The other side of this coin featured prominently in his first long single in the big leagues, where Guerrero drove a hard line drive off the fence in right centre, operating under the assumption of it being a home run. He was, in the words of Buck Martinez, Cadillacking it around first base.

Probably won’t do that again and probably won’t have to. Of these 10 hits, six of them were within a few inches of becoming home runs. Slivers of degrees of launch angle that help, potentially, change the narrative around Vlad Jr. Does 30 home runs in 757 plate appearances feel a bit nicer than 24? Do 18 extra total bases goose up his associated metrics a little bit? Does a .340 wOBA go down more easily than .330? It’s right there.

Extra speed, or added agility or even just the ability to accelerate more quickly could help add a few extra bags here and there (and we know he’s always looking for the opportunity.)

But the biggest factor contributing to fewer long singles in 2021 and beyond comes back to launch angle. Hit the ball over the wall and good things happen. Few players hit the ball as ferociously as regularly as Vlad Guerrero Jr. Hit it up in the air a little more often and good things will happen. It’s quite simple.

Balls with an exit velocity of at least 105 mph and a launch angle between 10-30 degree go for hits. Extra base hits, as a rule. The league hit .860 on balls like this since the start of 2019. They went for a wOBA of 1.260 in that time.

Vlad Jr has 101 balls in play at that speed. His batting average is “just” .564 and wOBA a “mere" .656. Less than 30% of these balls meet the launch angle requirement listed above. Even then, his .767/1.046 lags behind the league.

Hit it high and watch it fly continues to be the mantra for Vlad watchers. Last year at this time, the common question was “can Vlad Jr increase his launch angle to unlock his power?” We’re asking very similar questions in 2021, though the (latest) question about his fitness is part of that equation.

Can his fitness unlock his swing to allow him to increase his launch angle to unlock his power?

This season won’t be normal but, public health concerns aside, the hope is a seamless Spring Training that leads to a reasonably normal regular season - no breaks, no interruptions, and no excuses. Give me the structure comes stability while hopefully so I might usher out the crutches for underperformance.

Be healthy, be fit and be good. It’s holy triumvirate for any professional athlete. For Vlad Jr, hopefully all three come together so we don’t end up focusing on singles.

1. Two season, 183 games. 757 plate appearances.